Domination Virtus.pro and Natus Vincere in the CIS at the moment it seems almost unconditional. Both teams look head and shoulders above their competitors both in terms of their own strategies and in terms of personal skill, so hardly anyone doubts that NAVI and Virtus.pro will get slots at the upcoming Major. The third place remains vacant, for which, to varying degrees, all other participants of the first division retain their chances. Cybersport.ru decided to figure out which of the six teams is closest to the coveted slot.
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Live to win
Statistics at the moment: 6 points (2/2 for matches and 5/5 for cards).
Remaining Rivals: NAVI, Team Unique and EXTREMUM. The complexity of the calendar is 5/10.
Strengths:
- Captain SoNNeikO. The factor of a strong captain in the decisive stage of the group stage will play a major role. SoNNeikO I was already able to build a game in Live to win, now his task is to control the team both in Dota 2 itself and beyond. And Butaev has a similar experience, and an extremely rich one.
- Strong “four”. Immersion back in the days of Gambit, it was considered one of the strongest “fours” in the region. Now he confirms his status in LtW. In his pool there are the most powerful Earth Spirit and Nyx Assassin, on which he is able to perfectly control the map and impose a high pace of the game, which is ideal for the style of the team.
- Variable crust. If the choice of supports is LtW is pretty standard, but the variety of heroes for three core positions is much wider for the team. Moreover, the players perfectly swap characters between each other. The conditional Ember Spirit can be seen from and fn, and from dream ‘, and Lycan can appear on both off lane and center. This unties the team’s hands at the draft stage and makes it more adaptable to the opponent’s pick.
Weaknesses:
- Bet on dream ‘. In LtW, the main emphasis is on the carry, fn often acts as a utility core who gives most of the farm and is focused on moving with the team. However, dream ‘, despite its high skill, is sometimes unstable, and his mistakes or deaths sometimes put LtW in a critical position.
- Communication problems in important fights. Especially in late game, when core characters have to control the game, you can see some flaws in LtW. The team may incorrectly distribute the focus on enemy heroes or give out their abilities out of timing. For example, a significant moment was in the match against Virtus.pro, when fn threw Tornado at the hero, on whom Juggernaut used his ultimate. Such mistakes are a common thing in matchmaking at the level of 3000 MMR, but for a professional team such moments are a wake-up call.
NoTechies
Statistics at the moment: 3 points (1/2 for matches and 2/5 for cards).
Remaining Rivals: Team Empire, Team Unique, Virtus.pro, EXTREMUM. The complexity of the calendar is 5/10.
Strengths:
- Solo experience. As part of NoTechies three players at once with vast experience on the professional stage of shooting-1 level. Wherein Solo – an excellent leader both in the game itself and outside it, he knows how to create and develop teams. Therefore, if the guys are going to continue performing together in the future, then you can be sure that Solo will make a team out of NoTechies, and not another stack. So it is unlikely that the team’s knees were shaking and tilt started after two starting failures. Probably, the roster will only gain with each match.
- Aggression and courage. NoTechies tried to play number one even in the match with NAVI. Aggressive style, constant increase in tempo and playing through “snowball” were the hallmarks of Virtus.pro since RAMZES666 and 9pasha. NoTechies is trying to operate in a similar format. Even though the first games had enough roughness (and, most importantly, bad decisions at the draft stage), in the future the team can crush its opponents with this aggression.
Weaknesses:
- Didn’t hit the meta. This is perhaps the main and most noticeable problem of NoTechies, from which other difficulties already follow. The team passed the qualifiers so easily, in which they could utter whatever they wanted and leave no chance for the opponent, that they were confident in some of their exceptional meta. However, in the first division the level of the teams turned out to be much higher. NoTechies played heroes who simply do not work in the CIS. The team took Bounty Hunter, who could not realize himself in any way, Sven, inferior to more meta carries, OD on the offlane, with a win rate of 22% in our region. This list can be expanded with Weaver, Meepo, Winter Wyvern, Pugna and the Bloodseeker carry – all in three games. However, unlike the situation with Unique, it cannot be said about NoTechies that the team simply iterates over all the characters in a row. The Solo roster had a clear strategy and idea for each of the drafts, but they just didn’t work in the current meta. Because of this, the whole game of the team, especially in the two starting fights, looked frankly weak. If NoTechies stops taking characters that no one else in the region plays because of their irrelevance, the team has every chance to fight for the third slot.
Team Spirit
Statistics at the moment: 6 points (2/2 for matches and 6/5 for cards).
Remaining Rivals: Virtus.pro, NAVI and Team Unique. The complexity of the calendar is 9/10.
Strengths:
- Yatoro on fire… NS once praised Collapse, but now we cannot fail to mention the carry Team Spirit. Even in lost matches, he squeezes the maximum out of his heroes, has a good farm and tries to minimize deaths. Specifically Morphling from Yatorois likely to be banned in all next games, otherwise the outcome of the meeting will be clear even at the draft stage. Currently, Team Spirit carries a 100% win rate on this hero and an average KDA of 11.
- Variation of core heroes… All three core Team Spirit players have a very wide and varied character pool. Collapse has already shown Grimstroke and Chaos Knight offlane – both with high personal stats. TORONTOTOKYO he feels comfortable not only on all meta mid lanes, but also on Invoker – he is the only one who could win this character in the CIS. Yatoro played seven different heroes in the four starting matches and performed fairly confidently on each one.
- High level of performance. Team Spirit – really one of the most promising teams in the CIS in terms of performers. All three players in the core positions have been showing a high level for several months, even if they lack stability at times. Team Spirit’s cores make mistakes that are common among young and inexperienced players, but they definitely cannot be denied the ability to press buttons and come up with unexpected and fresh solutions.
Weaknesses:
- Rearrangement of the composition. The replacement of Vitaly so bad Oshmankevich with Miroslav Miroslaw Kolpakov has already given a good shake-up to Spirit, and after two consecutive defeats from not the most dangerous rivals, the team beat one of its main competitors in the fight for the third slot – Live to Win. However, any rearrangements in the rosters one way or another force the team to rebuild and take time to adapt a new participant. Therefore, it is possible that after the first joyful candy-bouquet week, the roster will face certain difficulties due to replacement.
- Complex schedule. Team Spirit’s main problem in this case is its future calendar. The team lost points where it was absolutely impossible to do this. Now fights with Virtus.pro and NAVI are ahead. Spirit, of course, can compete with both teams and even pick up one card, but it is rash to count on winning these matches. The team will be able to get the necessary points, perhaps, only in a meeting with Unique.
- Failed experiments. Spirit is the only team in the region that has tried Skywrath Mage and Windranger, and it hasn’t worked out very well. In the match against LtW, the team generally surprised the midlane Slark, which in the end turned out to be almost completely useless. Attempts to invent something crazy, like OG, while the team is only in the red.
Team empire
Statistics at the moment: 3 points (1/3 for matches and 3/5 for cards).
Remaining Rivals: EXTREMUM, Team Unique, NoTechies. The complexity of the calendar is 4/10.
Strengths:
- Dark horse status. Before the start of the first division, many viewed Team Empire as an outsider, but the team managed not only to beat Team Spirit, but also to impose a struggle between NAVI and LtW. It is noticeable that the preparations for Empire were not as thorough as for other bands. Otherwise, how else to explain that Spirit on the first map against Empire in the last stage banned Invoker, on which gwynbleidd has not played a single match on the professional stage, and gives it away the signature Storm Spirit? Opponents’ underestimation can significantly help Team Empire in recent matches.
- Gwynbleidd and Smiling Knight. You definitely shouldn’t ignore the first and second positions of Team Empire. Gwynbleidd has a very powerful Storm Spirit, which, even with counter-picks, can perform well, and Smiling knight extremely strong on Wraith King, whom he has been actively training in matchmaking lately.
- Sayuw is really good. Oleg sayuw Kalenbet Is the most experienced player in the current Empire roster. As part of the DPC, he still shows his best side and leads the team. Sayuw has already demonstrated three of his strong heroes at once – Earth Spirit, Keeper of the Light and Clockwerk. He acts extremely actively, moves a lot, helps with warding, but at the same time does not live in poverty and manages to collect the necessary slots.
Weaknesses:
- Failed experiments… Empire, like Team Spirit, tried to experiment in the early weeks of the DPC. Her drafts featured Winter Wyvern, Broodmother, Pugna, and Zeus – each time it ended in defeat. Empire has yet to invent a bike like NAVI or Virtus.pro, and attempts only negatively affect the result.
- What about Puck? One of the two teams in the region that has never taken Puck (the first is NAVI). And if everything is clear with NAVI – the team generally has its own strategies that work great, then in the case of Empire, the rejection of the most popular character in the CIS with a winrate of over 60% looks rather strange. At the same time, the team, apparently, understands the strength of the character, because they constantly ban him. Opponents, in turn, know that Empire will not “steal” Puck, which allows them not to spend an extra ban on him during the draft.
- Inexperience… There are no players in Team Empire with extensive experience in tier-1 or even tier-2. The young team practically did not participate in really important and large tournaments. Therefore, the higher the significance of the match in the group stage of the first division, the greater the chance that the excitement and stress will have their say. And it’s not a fact that the coach Chappie will be able to help the team specifically in this aspect, no matter how he puts everything else on the shelves.
EXTREMUM
Statistics at the moment: 3 points (1/3 for matches and 3/7 for cards).
Remaining Rivals: Live to Win, NoTechies and Team Empire. The complexity of the calendar is 5/10.
Strengths:
- Game tone… For a team that recently renewed its roster, it is very important to catch its own wave. EXTREMUM trying to improve the interaction of teammates through the Snow Sweet Snow # 1 tournament. While all the teams of the first division play one official match a week, EXTREMUM has three of them. Therefore, the team progresses faster and corrects its own mistakes on the fly. However, this has a downside, but more on that later.
- Nefrit can on almost all heroes… For the last month Nefrit played 11 different characters in official matches. And among them are both the signature Medusa and the meta WK, and the forgotten Phantom Assassin, as well as Bristleback and Alchemist. Now Nefrit is perhaps EXTREMUM’s main asset. He is very young and talented, and if the necessary conditions are created for him, he will be able to at least help the team maintain a residence permit in the first division, and, at the most, bring it to the Major.
Weaknesses:
- Predictability for the opponent. EXTREMUM remains the only (formerly Team Empire) team in the first division of the CIS, which is now participating in the Snow Sweet Snow # 1 parallel tournament. The team of Sergey God Bragin has already played seven matches in the group there and has now reached the playoffs. Thanks to this, EXTREMUM’s rivals in the first division managed to study what the team was playing. For example, the team has a high win rate with Medusa carry and Death Prophet 5 – each of the characters won more than 80% of the time in the last month. And what happens in the match against Virtus.pro? The Save team bans both heroes in the first stage. It turns out that EXTREMUM rivals simply have more data on drafts, movement and team strategy, which means it is easier for them to prepare.
- Ignoring multiple meta heroes. EXTREMUM stubbornly avoids three rather popular characters in the current meta – Timbersaw, Lycan, and Morphling. Moreover, all these heroes have positive win rates in the CIS. EXTREMUM never took any of them, but was forced to spend bans on them during drafts.
- Hero Pool God. There are practically no questions about Bragin’s game – he copes well with his new role, but his pool of characters is smaller than that of his teammates. The two most popular heroes God Over the past month, Death Prophet and Witch Doctor have become – eight cards each. However, the first, as we said, is now banned, and the second has a low win rate. In addition to Keeper of the Light, we have not seen strong analogues in Bragin’s chiropulum, for 27 cards over the past month.
Team Unique
Statistics at the moment: 0 points (0/3 for matches and 1/6 for cards).
Remaining Rivals: Spirit, Live to Win, NoTechies and Team Empire. The complexity of the calendar is 6/10.
Strengths:
- VP and NAVI are behind. This is probably the main thing with which the team can now console themselves after three defeats in a row. With the giants of the region Team Unique already played, and ahead of the teams are plus or minus equal in level.
- Unpredictability. It is simply impossible to prepare for Unique now, because it is not clear how and with what the band plays. For Unique itself, this is also not the best indicator. However, the fact remains: when approaching a match with Unique, the opponents simply won’t know what to expect from her.
Weaknesses:
- Lack of a working strategy. In the first three matches, Unique seemed to have tried the most incredible combinations. The team already had Io carry, Lycan’s three and Puck’s five, but none of the drafts left a complete impression. Unique’s task now is to find something that can give a result, because there is no time left for experiments.
- Personal mistakes. Perhaps, in the performance of each Unique participant in these matches, you can find a certain amount of roughness – mistakes at the laning stage, in positioning, in actions on the map and in making decisions in fights.
- Team errors. As I noticed myself Ghostikanalyzing the defeat by NAVI, the team made an absurd decision when they attacked Templar Assassin, realizing that they could not kill her. There are enough such not always justified decisions in Unique matches, which sometimes makes the team play too chaotic.
What team do you think will receive the third slot in the Major from the CIS?