https://www.cybersport.ru/dota-2/articles/nachalo-tretego-pokhoda-og-za-aegisom-ili-legkaya-kvalifikaciya-dlya-iltw-prevyu-otborochnykh-na-ti10-dlya-evropy

Is Nigma a favorite?

Nigma became the best European team according to the results of the Kiev Major. It was against the backdrop of the success of the KuroKy team and the next failure of Alliance in the community that the dispute about the unfair distribution of DPC points flared up again. 5-6 place on WePlay AniMajor 2023 did not give Nigma any preferences in the battle for the slot. However, we saw that the team really improved the game compared to the first season: Nigma looked good in matches against representatives of China, played confidently against weaker teams. In addition, as noted by some analysts, the KuroKy lineup has a good feel for the meta and has adapted to it. And now we can say with confidence that iLTW has joined the roster well.

However, at the next tournament after the Major – ESL One Summer – Nigma completely failed. The team lost to two direct competitors in the qualifiers – OG and ViKin.gg – and barely beat Team Secret, which hasn’t really worried about the result for two months now, having qualified for TI after the first major. At the same time, it cannot be said that Nigma at ESL One Summer was engaged exclusively in experiments. Yes, the Brewmaster of the fifth position and Leshrac in the “three” once jumped into her drafts, but otherwise the team chose the usual heroes, which they simply played poorly.

As Miroslaw noted after the CIS TI10 qualifiers, such tournaments form their own meta, even if no patches were released in Dota 2. Therefore, the fact that Nigma successfully felt the meta during the Major will not help the team in the qualifiers in any way and, on the contrary, may even play a disadvantage if the roster clings to the conditional Templar Assassin, whose winrate dropped significantly after WePlay AniMajor 2023. Nigma is a challenger per slot on TI10, but far from unconditional. In the first match, the team shouldn’t have any problems, because the Hellbear Smashers are definitely not up to the level of the first division of Europe so far. The same opinion is shared by analysts of the bookmaker Parimatch, who consider Nigma to be the clear favorite in the first confrontation.

Odds are taken from the website of the betting company Parimatch and are relevant at the time of publication of the material.

• Nigma (1.10) – Hellbear Smashers (6.25)

OG – an attempt to start a new fairy tale

In whatever form OG may be, you can never write off a team with 100% certainty, especially when it comes to The International. Of course, now this is not the same lineup that won the aegis in 2018 and 2019 – there is no JerAx and ana … But psychologist Mia Stellberg returned to the club! It was she who worked with the team before TI9 – you may even remember that after the end of the final, Stellberg was one of the first to go on stage to congratulate the team. The members of the composition then repeatedly noted in interviews the contribution that the psychologist made to the success of the team. And now it is the self-confidence, and most importantly, the unusual approach to drafts and the game that OG has distinguished, that is what the team needs. Therefore, the return of Stellberg is the most important “transfer” for the team in recent years.

Ana’s departure and SumaiL’s return are also a plus for OG. Despite all of Fam’s regalia, it was clear that the huge break from the professional scene that he took after TI9 had a noticeable effect on his level of play. In the second season of the DPC, the Australian, apart from the first bright match at the Phantom Lancer, looked pretty mediocre and was often the weak link of the team. At the same time, it is not yet completely clear how organically SumaiL will look as an OG carry and how quickly he adapts to his style of play, after all, his first experience in the team at the end of 2023 cannot be called successful.

However, at ESL One Summer, Hassan looked good, as, in principle, did the whole team, which rather unexpectedly beat Quincy Crew and Nigma, who took 5-6 places at the Major in Kiev. The most important thing, however, is that OG has finally begun to develop personal strategies. Mid Hoodwink, with which the team was only inferior in the second season of the DPC, finally began to win. To this can be added the forgotten by all Necrophos for Ceb or the unusual support Mars. In short, OG can approach the qualifiers with a good mental attitude and a full arsenal of the most insane strategies. Parimatch analysts believe that OG will be the favorite in the first match, despite the fact that its rival is ViKin.gg.

• OG (1.40) – ViKin.gg (2.80)

Team Liquid and the return of Boxi

In 2023, Team Liquid got in good shape and looked really great, but by the end of the year the team’s results began to decline, and the players began to complain of fatigue and exhaustion. Nevertheless, the team still played well in the first season of the DPC, finishing in second place. However, he failed at the Major, having won only one streak in two stages of the tournament, and Boxi moved to the reserve for personal reasons. Despite this, Liquid managed to qualify for the Major, but at the same time, the club emphasized that they were looking forward to the return of their offlaneer. In Kiev, the team looked frankly weak, in principle, like all European teams, and could not reach the playoffs. After that SumaiL left the team and Boxi returned.

At ESL One Summer, the team again played with substitutions and, as a result, did not win a single match. In qualifying for TI, we will see Liquid in the first roster for the first time in months. In fact, it is now difficult to imagine what the team will be like in the qualifiers, but the reunion should certainly give a positive impetus to the roster. Still, one of the strongest sides of Liquid was precisely the active “double” on the off lane: Taiga and Boxi showed perfect understanding and often destroyed their opponents. Although, of course, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then, and most importantly, the meta has changed. Signature Slardar for Boxi is hardly worth waiting for, and he played on the now popular DK on the professional scene only a few times. Therefore, yes, Liquid, like NAVI in the CIS, is the main mystery of the region. However, the success of Taiga’s well-played and balanced roster is much more credible. So Parimatch analysts, despite all the “buts” mentioned above, do not doubt that Liquid will defeat Spider Pigzs in the first match.

• Liquid (1.05) – Spider Pigzs (8.50)

Tundra – dark horse

Behind the main grandees of the European scene in the person of Nigma, OG and Team Liquid, you can not see the rest of the contenders for the slot. Until recently, ViKin.gg could have been the company of this trio, but its results in 2023 have sharply declined. But unexpectedly brightly showed itself Tundra Esports… The team really made a splash in the second season of the DPC for Europe: Tundra beat OG and Nigma, and took one map each from Alliance, Team Secret and Team Liquid. In fact, the team was prevented from getting to the Major by an offensive defeat from Brame at the start of the championship. It turns out that Tundra played absolutely on equal terms with all the top players in its region.

At the same time, Tundra, like OG, has an interesting approach to drafts: the team does not forget about the Enigma four, the Chaos Knight carry, and even takes the mid-side Winter Wyvern on the professional stage and wins with it! As part of ESL One Summer, the team could not advance far, losing to AS Monaco Gambit and Quincy Crew, but Tundra had no problems with representatives of their region. The team dealt with ViKin.gg twice and beat Team Liquid once, so if you single out one of the nominal underdogs, then Tundra should become this dark horse. In the first match in qualifying, she will face Brame, whom the team has already avenged in DPC replay. Parimatch analysts also highly appreciate Tundra’s prospects and consider it a clear favorite against Brame.

• Tundra (1.35) – Brame (3.05)