https://www.cybersport.ru/dota-2/articles/shest-geroev-kotorye-ne-dozhivut-do-the-international-kogo-obyazatelno-zhdut-nerfy-v-blizhaishem-patche

Dragon knight

Dragon Knight became one of the most popular offlaners in the pro scene in 7.29d. On AniMajor, he appeared 43 times (and was banned 29 more times), and the hero’s winrate was 60.47%. According to Daxak, Dragon Knight is one of the most annoying opponents for carries. This is mainly due to the fact that it is simply impossible to drive the hero out of the lane now. Due to his high survivability, DK feels great in any matchup and calmly farms along with the enemy carry. At the same time, by the tenth minute, Dragon Knight has every chance to demolish the opponent’s tower due to the ultimate.

OG support at ESL One Summer Martin Saksa Sazdov showed that Dragon Knight can be useful in fourth position as well. The character needs only two items – Aghanim’s Scepter and Blink Dagger to act as a full-fledged tank and be useful.

What are we going to nerf? Probably, the developers can weaken the passive ability of DK, as was the case with Timbersaw – for example, reduce the bonus to regeneration in the first two or three levels. At the same time, you can again increase the mana cost of stunning, and at the same time increase its cooldown or decrease the duration. And finally, it is worth weakening the effect of Aghanim’s Scepter, a partial reduction in the bonus to protection from magic looks quite logical.

Winter wyvern

Winter Wyvern has proven to be a key support in the current meta. At the Major, the hero appeared in 33 games (win rate 63.64%) and was banned 15 times. At ESL One Summer, the character was picked even more often – in 41 games (51.22% winrate) and banned 16 times. In matchmaking with a rating above 7 thousand MMR, the character now occupies the first place in popularity: in eight days he was selected 2,378 times. At the same time, the hero manages to maintain a very high percentage of victories – 55.8%.

The main reason why Winter Wyvern has become one of the most requested supports is because of the Cold Embrace buff. The level 10 talent increases health regeneration by 1.5% per second, and Aghanim’s Shard reduces its cooldown by 5 seconds. And all these bonuses are combined with the effect of the Holy Locket, which has become a key item for the hero, which increases healing by 35%. Thanks to this, Winter Wyvern is able to restore almost half of the teammate’s health every ten seconds. And taking Roshan or buildings has become much easier – you can always heal heroes or other creatures that absorb damage. Reducing the cooldown of Arctic Burn made the character more comfortable during the laning stage.

What are we going to nerf? Obviously, the main force Winter Wyvern in the current meta is Cold Embrace. Therefore, it is worth counting on Valve to increase the ability’s cooldown or remove the level 10 talent altogether.

Templar assassin

Six months ago, before the start of the DPC, Templar Assassin was hardly mentioned. Actually, even during the first and second seasons, the hero appeared extremely rarely. However, recent patches literally pushed players to remember the character. And at the Major in Kiev, the teams really remembered about her: Templar Assassin was picked 35 times (win rate 60%) and in 77 cases went to the ban. Best of all, Chinese and Asian teams adapted to the hero, the latter took TA even to the first position. At ESL One Summer, the character’s stats were noticeably spoiled by tier-2 teams: 19 appearances in picks (47.37% winrate) and 59 bans.

Despite this, Templar Assassin remains one of the most meta-mid lane players, behind Puck of course. The hero is able to feel comfortable in almost any matchup. Templar Assassin continues to farm quickly in the beginning and can set a high pace in the game. And Aghanim’s Scepter makes the hero perhaps one of the best split-pushers in the late stage. This is clearly demonstrated TNC Predator in a match with Team Aster in Kiev.

What are we going to nerf? Popularity Templar Assassin on the professional scene can be explained by the general strengthening of all the hero’s abilities. Starting from the space range of Psi Blades, capable of reaching an opponent in almost another game, to the versatility of traps that are no longer just pink wards. Therefore, the downgrade is likely to be done in general terms. Valve will most likely weaken Meld and the Tier 10 talent for Psi Blades.

Nyx assassin

Nyx Assassin remained one of the most popular characters throughout the competitive season. Minor weaknesses that Valve introduced did not affect its position in the professional scene in any way. At ESL One Summer, the hero appeared in 31 matches and had a 70.97% win rate. At the Major, Nyx Assassin was taken 24 times (win rate 58.33%) and in 67 more cases he was banned. In matchmaking with a rating above 7 thousand MMR, the character takes the sixth place in terms of the percentage of victories (56%) and is in the top 20 in popularity.

How dangerous and unpleasant a hero can be is clearly seen by Virtus.pro in the ESL One Summer final. On the fifth map, Nyx Assassin prevented the CIS team from entering the roshpit for several minutes thanks to his Aghanim’s Scepter. Not only did the hero constantly stun and drain VP players, he also survived all the attacks of his opponents, due to which he won this standing against Roshan for T1. American casters jokingly noted that this is the first time in the history of Dota when the most effective participant in a fight was a hero who literally did nothing and just absorbed the damage.

What are we going to nerf? Everything is pretty obvious here: it is the Aghanim’s Scepter effect that should weaken Valve, although it is possible that Nyx Assassin will also lose in starting parameters – this could be a reduction in health regeneration or movement speed.

Timbersaw

While Dragon Knight has recently burst into the meta as one of the best offlaners, Timbersaw has been on this podium for a very long time. At the same time, in two of the last three updates, Valve weakened the hero, reducing the effectiveness of the bonus from Aghanim’s Shard, but this did not make serious adjustments to the results. At the Major, Timbersaw appeared in 26 games (winrate 61.54%) and was banned in 66 more games, often in the very first stage. At ESL One Summer, the character was picked 42 times (win rate 61.9%) and was banned 79 times.

Timbersaw has become less durable in the early levels due to the Reactive Armor nerf. Because of this, he may have problems in certain cases, but such situations are extremely few. Much more often Timbersaw, as before, kicks the enemy carry out of the lane, killing his support several times along the way. Aghanim’s Shard also, despite the nerf, remains an incredibly useful item that allows the character to demolish buildings. And Timbersaw’s damage in mid and late game remains one of the highest among all possible offlaners.

What are we going to nerf? The developers may take on not only Timbersaw’s survivability, but also its killing potential. Alternatively, reducing the number of charges of Reactive Armor at the first levels, as well as reducing the damage of Whirling Death. Well, don’t forget about the bonus from Aghanim’s Shard: a reduction in duration and a decrease in slowdown from Flamethrower can help lower a character from the top of the offlane rating.

Broodmother

In patch 7.29, Broodmother has been significantly overhauled. Usually, after this, heroes are sent to the bottom of the winrate table, such as, for example, Outworld Destroyer. However, it didn’t take long for the players to adapt. The character changed his profile and moved from the central line to the difficult one. At the same time, the approach to playing for Broodmother completely changed, and the result was not long in coming. In Kiev, teams were afraid to release a character from bans – 92 bans with 14 picks (win rate 57.14%). At ESL One Summer, the picture did not change: Broodmother was selected only nine times (winrate 66.67%), and in 71 cases she was eliminated during the draft. At the same time, the hero’s popularity at high MMR also increased – 1,144 appearances in eight days and a win rate of 54.2%.

At the same time, in recent patches Broodmother has already been weakened, however, as you can see, this did not have the desired effect. The character feels great on the off lane, it is extremely difficult to kill her or at least deprive her of the farm. In addition, now Broodmother is not going to damage, but buys protective artifacts for the team, which does not prevent her from single-handedly killing enemy supports. However, Broodmother is now less dependent on the pace of the game. Previously, when a character was taken to the center lane and bought offensive items, he noticeably lost relevance and effectiveness in the late stage. Now the hero is useful at any minute, although, of course, early aggression and domination are still a priority for Broodmother.

What are we going to nerf? In patch 7.29d, the developers have already reduced Insatiable Hunger lifespan by 30% at the first level, but this was not enough. It might be worth tackling the bonus damage reduction now. An even more likely nerf is the reduced health regeneration from Spin Web, at least in the first three levels of the ability. After all, it is thanks to these two skills that Broodmother feels so free on the off lane.

These are not all the characters that will be weakened in the next patch before The International. The nerfs will likely overtake Puck, Enchantress, Ancient Apparition, Ax, Viper, Mars, Ursa and other popular heroes. It might not even do without the traditional weakening of the ever-useful Earth Spirit. What characters are you waiting for weakening?