IEM Beijing Online 2023 favorites and outsiders – NAVI in search of stability

Favorites

In the online era, teams began to rank differently on the favorite-outsider scale. The matches have become more unpredictable, the teams often show an equal game, and the outcomes are decided by some little things. In a word, the number of unambiguous contenders for victories has diminished. It seems to me that now it is appropriate to talk about only three compositions, the success of which is most likely to be believed.

ABOUT Heroic a lot has already been said. While the composition Kasper cadiaN Möller marks the title of team of the year not only in connection with his sporting successes, but also with the drama that accompanied the Danes throughout 2023. First, the team went to the Chinese organization, then lost the leader, returned to Heroic, signed Nicholas HUNDEN Petersen as a coach, and then lost it due to a bug scandal. In a word, the first half of the year the Danes were in complete uncertainty. But this did not stop them from reaching the first place in the HLTV.org rating.

If only six months ago Heroic was a strong underdog, now it is rightfully considered one of the favorites to win in any tournament, and IEM Beijing is no exception. The Danes will debut in the competition against their compatriots from North, and the bookmaker gives odds for the success of Heroic 1.30…

As strange as it may sound, but Astralis now not only is not the best squad in the world, but, as Heroic likes to joke, not even the first team in Denmark. But less formidable wards Danny Zonic Sorensen from this they never become. Recently, the team returned to the original roster with Xyp9x and have already managed to earn a place in the autumn BLAST finals, defeating the cardinally updated MIBR and G2 Esports from Nikola NiKo Kovacs…

It looks like the situation at Astralis has begun to stabilize. Not to say that after the rotation the team began to play much worse – with By Patrick es3tag Hansen and Lucas Bubzkji Andersen it still featured outstanding performance, but it was still not the Astralis that turned everything in Counter-Strike. The first one is no longer in the team, and the second, it seems, will now settle tightly in the reserve and will wait until the conditional Gen.G…

Astralis will not have the strongest bracket in the group stage at the IEM. The Danes will start the tournament with a game against ENCE, and then they will face the winner in a pair of mousesports – BIG. In the match with any of these teams, the Danes will be favorites, which is confirmed by the bookmaker’s quotes. Among all the first matches to win Astralis BC gives the lowest coefficient – 1.20…

The third and final clear favorite is Team Vitality, although in summer and autumn the French were very unlucky. The team has already lost four finals and is clearly tired of it. The team even decided to add another person to the lineup to try alternative combinations of players on different maps. Vitality signed a younger brother in mid-October Adil ScreaM Benrlitom – Nabil Nivera Benrlitom, which in the spring and summer proved to be excellent in Heretics under the supervision of Fabienne kioShiMa Fie…

Recently Vitality successfully qualified for the BLAST finals, defeating Complexity Gaming and defeating BIG twice. Right in the course of the matches, the team made substitutions, and, as we can see, the results at least did not get worse. However, one cannot say that the French were head and shoulders above their rivals in these confrontations – the games were very equal.

While Vitality wins in class, but overall the team is clearly not in optimal condition. Players often make mistakes, and the efforts of only one Mathieu ZywOo Herbaud sometimes it is not enough. There are plenty of strong performers in the team, but apart from Erbo no one can boast of a consistently high level of performance – the same Richard shox Papillon and Cedric RpK Goipue can turn on on one card and fall out completely on another. So far the French look weaker than both Danish teams, but on paper they are still stronger than all the other participants in the championship.

Applicants

Just a little short of the status of a favorite OG… Collective right now Alexi Aleksib Virolainen – the strongest of the international teams and one of the most progressive on the stage in general. OG has stubbornly made its way into the top 10 for many months and is now firmly established in it.

However, the team is not without problems, and sometimes it is simply lost in matches, which is why it has not yet won a single tournament, although it has repeatedly been one or two steps away from success. Most recently, OG did not perform well at DreamHack Open Fall 2023 (took seventh place), but at the same time, BLAST pretty confidently dealt with Evil Geniuses in the qualifiers for the autumn finals, and then beat Natus Vincere twice.

It won’t be easy for Europeans at IEM. In the first game, their opponent will be the updated (and therefore obscure) FaZe Clan, where he returned Olof olofmeister kayber… The bookmaker considers OG to be a favorite and gives odds for her victory 1.25, but the team will clearly not have an easy walk.

Natus Vincere due to their latest results, they cannot be considered favorites yet. Some of the team’s players have recently been crippled by the coronavirus, but it can hardly be attributed to the not very successful game in the matches with OG in the BLAST qualifier and the uncertain performance at the last tournament of the RMR series.

The potential of the NAVI roster is huge, but so far it has not been 100% realized. Yes, the team is always under the gun of the press and the public in general, this is a huge pressure. But still, the goals of the roster are clearly more ambitious than just hanging around the top 5 in the world rankings. If NAVI wants to solve the most serious problems, and Alexander s1mple Kostylev, as he himself admitted, is going to rewrite history, then it will not work to alternate excellent tournaments with failures.

It is hardly worth expecting heroism from NAVI at IEM. Players have made it clear that their priority is the final LANs slated for the end of the year. It is on them that the team is oriented, so it is reasonable to make global conclusions after BLAST and IEM. In the meantime, it remains to simply root for ours, especially since the first opponent is far from the most formidable – against MAD Lions, NAVI is given a coefficient for success 1.30…

BIG is still strong, but is no longer the formidable force that surprised everyone in May-August. At the last five tournaments Johannes tabseN Wodartz and the company did not even make it into the top 3, but not to say that this is due precisely to the decline of the team. Rather, the opponents have already gotten used to online and have learned not to lose concentration.

In terms of the game, BIG still looks very nice and can cause inconvenience to absolutely any opponent. The collective problem is roughly the same as that of Vitality – instability. The latest results show that the team has enough firepower, but at the same time it is impossible to single out a leader in it: anyone can shoot 20+ or ​​completely fail the game in BIG.

Complexity Gaming is now undergoing an unplanned restructuring and is unlikely to claim to win the IEM. But she can definitely surprise, nevertheless, the individual newcomer of the team Justin Jks Savage no worse than oBo, and in experience it certainly surpasses the young American.

The only question is how quickly jks will join the team and how long it will take Benjamin blameF Bremer and the coach Jamie Keita Hall to integrate the Australian into the system. The first matches of Complexity in the new roster were very controversial. At first, COL imposed a serious fight on Vitality, but nevertheless lost, and then lost to BIG rather unprincipledly.

Complexity Gaming has a very challenging schedule and must have very ambitious goals. Since the team did not qualify for the next major, it is important for them to perform as successfully as possible at other tournaments. In the near future, COL needs to either win at IEM Beijing (to get to the December IEM LAN finals) or win the BLAST Showdown (this is needed to get to the BLAST finals). It won’t be easy for COL, but this year she has already won one major tournament, where she was far from the main favorite. This means that even taking into account all the problems of the team, it cannot be ruled out that something like this can happen at the IEM.

Underdogs

Perhaps, “outsiders” is too negative a word, especially considering that at the IEM they are exactly half of the participating teams. Considering the situation on the stage, it would be more appropriate to call such bands underdogs.

Among the dark horses, the Swedes from Ninjas in Pajamas and Fnatic – and then rather from old memory. In this case, the former now look preferable to the latter. Wards Bjorn THREAT Persa did not play in the best way in the regular season of the autumn BLAST tournament, but before that they showed themselves very well at the same DreamHack Open Fall 2023. But the team Maikila Golden Selima after the nerf, Krieg lost a lot and even dropped out of the top ten of the world rankings.

Another half-dead patient mousesports, which has never been able to adapt to online. One ropz cannot pull the team out of the hole, and it’s time to get out, otherwise reshuffles cannot be avoided. Moreover, the chair will surely stagger under the captain. Finn Karrigan Andersen…

Andersen’s former team, FaZe Clan, now are also very difficult times. A system-forming player has recently left the team, and what the roster will look like without NiKo is a huge question. Who will be the new team leader? Will he take on this burden Marcelo Coldzera David, or it will be one of the veterans in the face Howard’s rain Nygard and olofmeister? Or will the roster completely disintegrate in the coming months? There are many more questions than answers.

For his performance in 2023 Team Spirit deserves only praise. The team is confidently included in at least three of the best teams in the CIS, but it is still far from being successful in the international arena. Yes, composition Leonid chopper Vishnyakov can beat the tops, but is not able to do it systematically. Spirit often performs at top events, but is eliminated in the very first rounds of the playoffs. I would like the trend to end at this IEM, but it’s hard to believe.

Three more Scandinavian teams – North, MAD Lions and ENCE eSports – they are also unlikely to fight for the championship. The first one has not been listed among the elite CS: GO teams for a long time, while the other two have recently changed their rosters and are clearly far from optimal shape. Perhaps, now they can only selectively take cards away from favorites.

Odds taken from the website of the bookmaker Parimatch and are relevant at the time of publication of the material. After registration there is a 100% bonus on the first deposit.

IEM Beijing Online 2023 will be held from November 6 to 22. In addition to the European division, matches will be played among teams from North America, Oceania and Asia. You can follow the progress of the championship in our reportage…