On March 16th, one of the biggest tournaments of the year in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive will begin – ESL Pro League Season 11. In 2023, the organizers radically changed the format of the competition, but the coronavirus prevented the plans of the operator: all games of the group stage will be held online. How this will affect the teams and who has the most chances to go to the next stage is in the material Cybersport.ru.
What is interesting about the new season of ESL Pro League?
2020 set new standards for competitive Counter-Strike. Discipline has become so popular that the emergence of franchise (or quasi-franchise) tournaments was a matter of time. At the beginning of the year, it was clear that the main struggle would unfold between the ESL and the then unannounced American League. As it turned out later, the latter will be carried out by FACEIT, which is generally not surprising.
Between the tournament operators, the battle for teams began: everyone wanted to attract the strongest. At the same time, Valve seemed to initially oppose the franchise system of tournaments, but TO managed to negotiate with Gabe Newell’s company: both competitions provide quotas for teams that are not partners of the leagues, which means there is no net franchise – Valve did it.
At the same time, the ESL obviously outperformed the competitor: all the strongest rosters gathered in the Pro League, and FLASHPOINT was left to be content with Team dignitas and MIBR. No matter how cool production comes up Duncan Thorin Shields (if you missed, he is the creative director of the league), the fans are primarily interested in the team.
It would seem that everything is fine with ESL, but the coronavirus intervened. Not only did IEM Katowice go without spectators, but the first stage of the ESL Pro League had to be moved online, which would clearly hit the budget of the tournament operator and teams, because there were partner clubs in the league that would share the revenue from the competition among themselves and ESL
In general, coronavirus played a cruel joke not only with the organizers, but also with the teams. Since the tournament had to be transferred online (at least its first stage), ESL decided to optimize the format and redistribute the teams according to their regional affiliation (obviously, there should not be much difference in time zones and ping). So Virtus.pro ended up in death group D, place Sharks esports in group A unexpectedly took Team spirit, Swole patrol replaced Reenegades, a Big got a slot left without a roster Heroic.
Otherwise, it is still the good old Pro League, where not only the strongest teams in Europe play, but also the best teams from more exotic regions, including China, Brazil and Australia.
What format?
In the new year, ESL expanded the composition of the tournament to 24 teams, half of which will go to the LAN finals (if the coronavirus does not mind). In the first week, from March 16 to March 24, matches of groups A and B will take place. Those who take the first places will directly go to the Play-In stage, where they will fight for the slot in the semifinals of the championship, and teams from second and third places will start the play -off from the 1/12 finals. The rest will finish the season and earn from $ 3 thousand to $ 7 thousand, depending on the place taken.
Every day, the tournament will host three matches in the best-of-3 format. Teams will play with each other in a circular system.
Who is the favorite?
Group A
You can not doubt only Astralis. For example, to win the first match of the tournament against NiP the Danes are given a coefficient of 1.12. If you do not take into account the defeat of Natus vincere on IEM Katowice, the gla1ve roster is in great shape (who would doubt it) and walked along the rest of the rivals in the championship – before the playoffs the Danes did not lose a single card Cloud9, Fnatic and Team vitality. If the composition does not take first place in the EPL, this will be a miracle, since group A is frankly weak.
If everything is clear with Astralis, then who will take the second and third places is an open question. Perhaps the strongest of the remaining teams is Godsent, which since February began to prove that the re-incarnation of the pronax tag was not in vain. First, roaster with Michael Maikelele Bill He showed himself well at the ICE Challenge, where he lost only to NAVI, and secondly, he successfully overcame the meat grinder of the qualifiers for the European minor, defeating OG in the decisive match.
It seems to me that guessing the third player in the playoffs is simply unrealistic. On paper, Vitality, NiP and ENCE must qualify for the slot. However, the first recently lost the captain Alexa ALEX MakMikinasecond continues to fever after veterans leave Christopher GeT_RiGhT Alesund and Patrick f0rest Lindbergh (the team barely passed to the minor), but ENCE best describes statistics Yere sergej Salo after leaving Alexi Aleksib Virolainen: the level of the team as a whole fell about the same.
Team Spirit can rightly be called the dark horse of the group, although the BCs do not really believe in it: the odds for the first matches against ENCE and NiP are 2.05 and 3.05, respectively. However, at least ours look stronger than the replaced Sharks, which play terribly even for the level of South America.
Now the team takes 27th place in the HLTV.org rating: all thanks to a rather stable online game. Of course, the wards Leonida chopper Vishnyakova there is almost no experience of playing against tier-1 teams, but the team almost always stably copes with rivals of the ESEA MDL level. It may sound too optimistic, but it seems to me that Team Spirit has good chances to go to the next stage.
Group B
Everything is much more interesting here! The obvious favorites, of course, are Natus Vincere and Fnatic: it’s hard to come up with a scenario in which these teams will not reach the next round. Odds on NAVI do not exceed 1.15, and on Fnatic – 1.42. The Swedes finally realized that without Maikila Golden Selima you will not cook porridge, and have come to the optimal composition, which keeps the level of last year. NAVI after replacement Ladislava GuardiaN Kovacs have become stronger by head: the main thing (and the most difficult) is now – over and over again to confirm the ambitions and the title of the best team in the world.
The third slot in the main stage, we hope, will receive forZe. The team started the year unsuccessfully – took 7-8th place on the not-so-large DreamHack Anaheim and with a creak went to the minor. However, as the team coach noted Anatoly liTTle Yashin, gradually, players are gaining an individual form (in recent matches the squad really lacked firepower Diamond almazer Assadulina), but the main thing is that team interaction is back.
Much more convincing forZe now looks Complexity gaming, which until February looked as faded as possible, but at BLAST Premier showed its potential, and in the qualifiers for the major confirmed it. Odds for full-time teams meeting are: 3.30 on forZe versus 1.30 on Complexity.
BIG and North, on the other hand, continue to pad the threshold of Tier-1: the first hit the start of the year, DreamHack Open Leipzig 2023, but did not fulfill one of the main tasks for the season – at the next major BIG we will not see.
In 2023, the Danes started another cardinal reshuffle: he joined the team as a coach Jimmy Jumpy Berndtshon, and returned to the post of captain Matthias MSL Lauridsen (his kick in September 2018 remains one of North’s worst management decisions, and there were many). Of the achievements of the team, only 3-4 place in DreamHack Open Anaheim 2023 – Perhaps, at a larger roster so far can not swipe.
Group C
Because of the coronavirus, ESL only had to sow teams from North America into one of the groups. Group C was the only one where so far five out of six members are known. At the same time, the prospects for the teams to enter the next stage are clear now: whoever is the sixth, the group already has three clear favorites.
There is no doubt that further will pass Team liquid, Evil geniuses and 100 thieves: In America, there simply were no other strong teams that could compete with them. The only potential competitors are Gen.G, Cloud9 and a stretch of MIBR – chose FLASHPOINT. There is no one else to fight with this troika.
Group D
The members of this group can rightly be indignant: Sextet D can rightly be called the death group. Just look at the names – Faze clan, G2 esports, mousesports, Og, Virtus.pro, Tyloo.
Of course, the three favorites immediately emerge: the teams Nicola NiKo Kovacs, Kenny KennyS Shrub and Finn karrigan andersen the chances of reaching the next stage are greater than those of the rest. But hardly these roasters are waiting for light games with the same VP and OG: both teams, of course, are unstable, but they can definitely surprise the grandees.
Virtus.pro is definitely worth a closer look: recently, the team is not lazy only – it has surrendered too much after the Berlin major. Now became captain Dauren AdreN Kystaubaev: will he be able to rally youth around him, or is it time for the team to think about reshafle? VP is vitally worthy to show oneself in this tournament, so as not to go to the major in a completely morally broken state …
EPL – major rehearsal?
… if the major takes place at all – while ESL and Valve keep silent about the championship in Rio de Janeiro. At the same time, on March 16, it became known that all national football competitions were suspended in Brazil, which means that the risk of canceling a major is higher than ever.
Of course, by May the situation may change dramatically, but regional minors are scheduled for April, and by this time the authorities are unlikely to abandon preventive measures. It is possible that the minors will be held online. How to conduct the Play-In stage under such conditions is completely incomprehensible. But for now, let’s not talk about the sad things: in the coming month, the top Counter-Strike awaits us (albeit online).
Odds taken from the site of the betting company Parimatch and are relevant at the time of publication of the material. After registration, first-rate insurance for up to 2 thousand rubles will be available.
