In 2023, everything that was possible went wrong. And this is especially true for the film industry. The pandemic has literally paralyzed the industry, putting cinemas on the brink of survival and forcing studios to postpone their releases.
The streaming platforms were doing well under the quarantine conditions, but they also had a hard time, because the production of new content was also paused. Many hoped that the situation would improve in the fall, but every day the understanding becomes clearer that this will not happen. Signals come from all over the world.
Judgment Day
The first serious bell was the decisions of the companies Disney and WarnerMedia again to postpone the release dates of their films. So, “Black Widow“and”Eternal“will now be released only in 2023, due to which the entire schedule of projects is shifted from Marvel Studios… It was decided to postpone with “West Side Story” Steven Spielberg…
Concerning WarnerMedia, then the decision to move “Wonder woman“December leaves no chance of coming out this year”Dune” Denis Villeneuve… The main fall blockbusters this year were supposed to be “New mutants“and”Mulan“from Disney and “Argument“from WarnerMedia… And the results came out pretty modest.
According to the analyst MKM Partners Eric Handler, the experiment of two large studios has clearly shown that in the United States it is impossible to count on impressive film collections if cinemas are closed in major cities on the east and west coasts. Until the quarantine is lifted, market players will continue to postpone releases, which threatens the death of movie networks.
“The New Mutants” performed disgustingly in the American market, becoming the worst grossing theatrical release of those based on comics Marvel… As noted by Forbes, Josh Boone’s film yielded even to such controversial films as “Punisher: War Zone“and”Howard the duck“. Worldwide receipts were about $ 39 million with a budget of 70-80 million.
Yes, Disney did not invest its money in the production of the film, because it went to Mickey Mouse a bonus to the film division Fox… However, certain funds were invested in the promotion of “New Mutants”, and the received money could support the company in a difficult period.
As for the “Argument” Christopher Nolan, it was recently announced that the global box office has crossed the $ 284 million mark, and WarnerMedia expects the tape to be long-term. But we must remember that about half of the fees are taken by cinemas, and the budget of the tape was about $ 205 million.
“Mulan” acts as a kind of dessert, because no one knows the exact numbers. Disney decided to rent the tape through the streaming platform Disney +… In order to maximize profits per view of Mulan, subscribers were asked to pay $ 30 upwards (the so-called Premium Access).
Recently analysts 7Park Data made a sensational statement that the collection of the picture for showing only through the streaming service allegedly exceeded $ 261 million. However, just a few days later, the company’s expert Brian Lichtenberger denied reports, specifying that the film’s gross is estimated at $ 62 million to $ 92 million. At the same time, the Disney + audience that watched Mulan is four times smaller than the audience for the musical. “Hamilton“.
Considering that the worldwide box office of the cartoon remake was about $ 64 million, it can be understood that the $ 200 million film was far behind Nolan’s creation. According to Eric Handler, the studio’s alternative strategy was simply not viable.
In such circumstances, it is not surprising that Disney decided to postpone the premiere of its next blockbusters. Instead of them, the film will be puffed up “Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back“. The best episode of the saga according to many fans George Lucas it was decided to re-release it, although it had already been successfully played this summer.
Mickey Mouse also has a problem with the Disney + release schedule. The fact is that content is added in portions, and nothing should interfere with a large release. Observation shows that a couple of weeks before the addition of a major movie / series, the company begins bombarding audiences with numerous commercials, the stream of which dries up a couple of weeks before release.
Because of this, the understanding comes that the films simply did not find a place. In September there was “Mulan”, on October 30 the show of the new season consisting of 8 episodes starts “Mandalorian“(one episode per week). Only one or two releases can be crammed into the remaining window. And it will either be a cartoon.”Soul“from the studio Pixar (rumors have been circulating for a long time), or the series “WandaVision “whose trailer recently appeared on the web.
Manufacturing problems
With experts increasingly talking about a second wave of coronavirus, it becomes clear that the film industry will have to change. And the metamorphosis will be extremely painful.
There are serious fears by some analysts that the phenomenon of billion-dollar films has finally exhausted itself. And companies will have to cut budgets. And the key problem is filming organization: it is necessary to completely rethink the approach to production.
So, an outbreak of infection can literally paralyze work, which was already proven by the incident on the set. “Batman” Matt Reeves… The film was already filmed by only 20-30%, so also the leading actor Robert Pattison managed to get sick, because of which everything almost got up.
At the same time, COVID-19 poses an increased threat to people with chronic diseases and older actors. Let’s say we’re working on the second season of the series “Star Trek: Picard“in the current situation it is simply impossible to organize due to the venerable age of sir Patrick Stewart…
It is also problematic to shoot large-scale projects, in which it is necessary to visit several locations. Any outbreak could interrupt air travel and risk quarantine for all new arrivals. So, the showrunner of the series “Star Wars: Cassian Andor” Tony Gilroy declined to direct as the filming will take place in the UK and he lives in the United States.
How can you get out of a difficult situation? Experts offer several ideas. The main one is filming in one place. This is why studios are now looking at experience Lucasfilm…
It’s about using technology Stagecraftdeveloped by experts Industrial light & magic (ILM) in collaboration with Epic Games… This is a set with LED screens onto which the created Unreal Engine backdrops.
The technology allows actors to feel more comfortable on set and adapt to the context as they no longer have to deal with the green screen. In addition, the lighting is adjusted to the scene, which makes it easier for VFX specialists in post-production.
The cameraman also wins, as it is possible to choose a better angle. For example, the exact moment to capture a sunset. One day the team can shoot a scene in the desert, and then quickly switch to a snowy location. The digital scene also takes into account the movement of the camera in space, correctly updating the backdrop in the desired area.
In September, it was announced that ILM is building three new Stagecraft venues that will be filming not only TV series but also Disney films. The first should be the tape Taiki Waititi “Thor: Love and Thunder“Other studios are also looking at technology.”
Perhaps the new production cycle will look like this. The studio rents a hangar for several months, turning it into a kind of observatory. A film crew is transferred there, whose contacts with the outside world will be minimized.
However, the problem of working with older actors is not going anywhere. Do not forget about the risk of the artists’ untimely death.
Here digital twins can help out film companies. Back in 2018, visual effects specialist Ben Morris said that Lucasfilm has made a standard procedure in which the faces of the main actors are digitized.
And in the middle of 2023, a rumor appeared that the actor Mark Hamill allegedly sold the rights to his digital twin to the studio, and the studio is allegedly preparing a separate film about a young Luke Skywalker… Insiders nod at the success of the remake. “The lion king“, which marketers have called” the movie, “although it is a CGI cartoon (there is only one short sunrise scene shot in nature).
There is almost no time left
Nobody canceled the time factor. So, a number of television networks and streaming services began to close the series, which had previously been extended for new seasons. For instance, Netflix canceled “Society“and”I do not like this“.
Downtime has a negative impact on people. Yes, big actors have the resources to sit out the unfavorable period in their multimillion-dollar mansions. However, what about lesser-known artists and filmmakers? So, the actor Spencer Wildingwho played Darth Vader in film “Rogue One. Star Wars Tales“, is seriously considering returning to cleaning windows for money. Possibly wearing a Darth Vader suit.
There are also unique people who stupidly hammered into sanitary and epidemiological restrictions. This is what the crew of the film about epidemics did (oh, this irony) “Songbird“which is produced by the badabum man Michael Bay…
The fact is that they decided to shoot the material in just 19 days, and in a hurry, the team began to ignore security protocols. For example, no one followed social distance and wearing masks. At the same time, other producers stubbornly deny all accusations.
What’s next?
It is rather difficult to predict further developments. However, there are alarming signals from Russia as well.
As the chairman of the Association of cinema owners told RBC Oleg Berezin, movie chains are seriously considering the re-closure scenario. At the same time, the organization fears that the second wave of coronavirus will finally finish off the industry.
In particular, short-term contracts are now concluded with the personnel, which spell out the conditions for the suspension of activities. Also, contracts with the owners of retail chains and the approach to the formation of stocks of products for cinema bars are being revised (last time they had to be disposed of).
The fears are justified, given that the Moscow authorities have asked five thousand employers to transfer their employees to remote work again. A similar picture is observed in St. Petersburg.
“The second wave of coronavirus will obviously finish off the industry – cinemas will not survive another quarantine,” Berezin complained.
An economist Vitaly Kalugin does not exclude that in the spring of 2023 the Russian government will curtail support measures due to the budget deficit. Aid will be provided only to backbone enterprises and the unemployed. Therefore, it is possible that a wave of layoffs will sweep across the country.
“Then tax inspections will come, because the moratorium will end. Towards the end of the year, other support measures will be canceled, and in the spring we will see a surge in layoffs and bankruptcies,” he said in an interview with Ura.ru.
Read also: Mice in the fall are considered: “Mulan” failure, “Mandalorian”, “Black Widow” and “Soul” problems will be released on Disney +?
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