2016 VS 2017: whether to repeat the fate of PUBG Pokemon Go?

Every summer mankind simply must hit any insanity – apparently, this is the effect of weather cycles, not only on the individual but on the collective psyche. Last season, the responsibility for the mass insanity took over Pokemon Go: played it everything – from hardcore gamers to casual gamers and housewives.

This madness in the summer as much as two – apparently anomalous weather affected. One of them is declining slowly, as if slowing spinner, whose kinetic energy back into potential. Others, on the contrary, is on the rise – and now only lazy people do not guess, what we tend to. PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds.

Watch out for commercial success PUBG – pure pleasure from the point of view of the media: there is always a fresh infopovody. Zabagovannaya beta scattered in 4 million copies in 4 months after starting early access to Steam? You have to write. Then – suddenly – and 5 million copies sold, even a couple of week – six. And it is also impossible to ignore. Take a look at this graph from CNET:

It’s time for the most hackneyed cliches in the history of journalism: PUBG shatters like hotcakes. Of course, the acceleration, we do not observe exponentially, but sales are growing at a steady pace over. If the trend does not change – as long as no preconditions – in the first week of August, you can safely write about the “happy” 7 million. Thank Bluehole: made for us in advance a single news.

Madness is growing. Filled with bugs bite … code, which sometimes does not work, reloading weapons, a low fence can cause death due to ill-defined jump and UAZ able suddenly on the bumper step hard asphalt, will get its own ESL tournament with a prize fund of $ 350 thousand. Yes not out there somewhere on the outskirts of civilization, and in the framework of the exhibition Gamescom in Cologne from 23 th to 26 th August, and each day will be entirely broadcast in live mode.

Throughout the summer sales in Steam, PUBG consistently held 1st place in the top of sales. And this despite the fact that he had no discount – or 10% or even 5% of the miserable! “People and so shavaet” – decided to himself greedy Brendan Green, and did not join the attraction of unprecedented generosity name Gabe Newell.

1st place on the Stream in Twitch, the third – for the simultaneous number of players on Steam. If release PUBG still had to fight for the 6 th – 7 th place in the top 10, but now the game is behind only on such universally recognized perennial monsters like Dota 2 and CS: GO. One of the most famous victims – GTA Online.

Before PUBG average number of players at the moment is 50 thousand people, after the elevation of creation Brendana Grina to the current status – all 30 thousand What do the obvious conclusion:.. Huge crowds of students exchanged their penthouses, fighters, Bentley and armories in California to an unknown abandoned Island in Eastern Europe.

At this moment of triumph PUBG it’s time to go back to the Pokemon GO. According to official figures the developer, the game is still able to boast the 65th million active users per month. However, independent sources say the figures “a little” less: for example, Apptopia counted 32.5 million.

This is still quite a lot: for example, in the Destiny was at the peak of 30 million players a month.. However, all known in comparison, and it is better not to compare with a AAA game, the financial threshold of entry into which is 4000 rubles. And with mad last year’s success of the Pokemon Go. Consider the history of the (sins) fall on the example of the USA – a key market for Pokemon Go developers. Take a glance the schedule:

The absolute peak of the number of users in the United States has been made after 13 July 2016 year: 28.5 million people. However, by September it had fallen to 10 million by the end of last year it was not more than 5 million users a day. BGR says: to this point 4/5 players left the base Pokemon Go. Maybe forever.

The developers are trying to revive interest in their offspring. With varied success. Pokemon fans the Go has always asked for three things: (degree of importance descending) 1) The ability to communicate with each other Pokemon – Pokemon is the basis of the universe! 2) PVP and 3) nerf specifically for capturing rooms nubov, so that one “folder” is not sitting on the points months.

To date, the Community received only point №3, And in a recent interview with The Verge boss Niantic honestly: the company behind the development of its own schedule for at least 6 months on That is a long-awaited exchange of monsters and the ability to measure their strength coaches can only get in the winter. When Pokemon Go has in general not need to be.

Against this background remains clear, what fate awaits PUBG. For this, we recall suffering Day Z. 2013, the first year. All students (and not only) play in this zombie mod Arma 2. All streamers streamers it. All media are in the hands of Dean “Rocket” Hall: genius has invented something new! No one in a nightmare could not have dreamed that the “Rocket” did not finish it declared the standalone, that is, an independent full version of the game.

Now, fast-set for 2016 th. Din Holl has long called Day Z mistake, almost all the players ran to every H1Z1 and ARK, the project is completely abandoned, HYIP is gone. Based on this, one can imagine two scenarios for PUBG.

First, one of the “Big Three” warning in advance and publishers will release his “Battle Royale” – with excellent graphics (instead of misery a la Arma 2), there is no stability and a minimum of code breaking game bugs. Why, though Ubisoft: it already has a huge breath away Bolivia – why would not run to 100 maniacs?

The second, much more realistic scenario: the other semi-indie office, a direct competitor to Bluehole, will launch in early access to new zabagovannuyu shit in that first run away all the streamers and students, and then many other categories of gamers.

Of course, we can make mistakes, and PUBG suddenly become “a game for the ages,” as CS and CS: GO. Then we sincerely rejoice over the new star of the firmament of the game, but experience shows that this probability is extremely low. Approximately how Fire resist.